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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 00:10:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 22:10:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 00:10:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 22:10:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-03 23:08:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 20:57:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Sep 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-09-03 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 032057 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016 Hermine has the look of an extratropical cyclone this afternoon, with most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the center and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern semicircle. This descending air resulted in a band of very strong winds over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, and those winds along with SFMR data from the aircraft support an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. Hermine has an expansive wind field, with 34-kt winds extending about 200 miles from the center. Hermine is still expected to interact with a shortwave trough in the next couple of days over warm SSTs, which should result in some intensification, although the global models are a little less bullish this cycle. The NHC forecast continues to show Hermine at or near hurricane intensity for the next 72 hours, with slow weakening expected thereafter. After moving due eastward earlier today, the initial motion is now back toward the east-northeast at around 10 kt. Hermine should turn northward and slow to a crawl as it merges with the upper-level trough, and the NHC track shows only 2-3 kt of forward speed from 24 through 96 hours. The spread in the track model guidance has increased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a westward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine northeastward. The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster, taking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and UKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given the spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the interaction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains quite low. The new NHC track tries to maintain some continuity with the last one, but lies to the right of the previous one in the first 12-24 hours due to the more easterly motion of Hermine today. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours. After that time, the NHC track is faster than the new consensus but slower than the previous forecast, reflecting the increasing spread at those times and low confidence in any particular solution. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will result in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the mid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the holiday weekend and into midweek. 2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in large differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during the next several days. In addition, there could be multiple occurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within the warning area during this time. 3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas. 4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am EDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of P-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat. 5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 36.2N 73.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 04/1800Z 37.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 05/0600Z 37.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/1800Z 38.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 06/1800Z 38.8N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 07/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 08/1800Z 41.0N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2016-09-03 22:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 032056 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 03 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 4(19) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 3(25) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 9(25) 4(29) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 12(30) 7(37) 3(40) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 12(32) 7(39) 3(42) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 11(27) 8(35) 4(39) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 8(26) 12(38) 9(47) 4(51) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 2 9(11) 13(24) 8(32) 12(44) 8(52) 5(57) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 3(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 5( 6) 13(19) 8(27) 13(40) 8(48) 3(51) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 2 6( 8) 14(22) 12(34) 13(47) 6(53) 3(56) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW HAVEN CT 34 2 6( 8) 13(21) 11(32) 14(46) 6(52) 3(55) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 10(27) 12(39) 6(45) 3(48) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 2 6( 8) 14(22) 11(33) 14(47) 7(54) 2(56) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 7(17) 5(22) 2(24) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 11(33) 6(39) 2(41) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTAUK POINT 34 3 10(13) 16(29) 11(40) 14(54) 6(60) 3(63) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 1(18) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 3 9(12) 18(30) 13(43) 12(55) 5(60) 3(63) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 2(18) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 8(11) 16(27) 14(41) 12(53) 5(58) 2(60) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 3 6( 9) 15(24) 13(37) 12(49) 6(55) 2(57) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 3 6( 9) 14(23) 13(36) 12(48) 6(54) 2(56) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 3 6( 9) 13(22) 14(36) 11(47) 4(51) 2(53) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NWS EARLE NJ 34 3 10(13) 17(30) 14(44) 13(57) 4(61) 2(63) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 10(25) 10(35) 4(39) 2(41) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 7(10) 14(24) 13(37) 10(47) 4(51) 2(53) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 4 12(16) 19(35) 14(49) 10(59) 5(64) 1(65) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 3 3( 6) 8(14) 9(23) 7(30) 3(33) 1(34) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 4 8(12) 14(26) 13(39) 10(49) 4(53) X(53) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 4( 7) 9(16) 9(25) 8(33) 3(36) 1(37) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 7(27) 2(29) 1(30) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 5 12(17) 17(34) 14(48) 9(57) 3(60) 1(61) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 8 13(21) 16(37) 13(50) 9(59) 3(62) 1(63) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 9(36) 2(38) 1(39) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 7 10(17) 14(31) 12(43) 8(51) 2(53) 1(54) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 2 X( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) RICHMOND VA 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 5(17) 6(23) 1(24) 1(25) DANVILLE VA 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 5(10) 9(19) 7(26) 8(34) 2(36) X(36) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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