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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2020-10-29 21:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 292036 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DOVER DE 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PAX RIVER NAS 34 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RICHMOND VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-10-29 21:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 292036 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 48 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 360SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 75.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta (AT3/AL282020)

2020-10-29 19:02:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ZETA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 the center of Zeta was located near 37.8, -78.2 with movement ENE at 53 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Public Advisory Number 20A

2020-10-29 19:02:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291802 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 20A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Corrected Tropical Storm to Post-Tropical Cyclone in Discussion and Outlook section ...ZETA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...STILL PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.8N 78.2W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SSE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 53 MPH...85 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta was located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 78.2 West. Zeta is moving rapidly toward the east-northeast near 53 mph (85 km/h). An even faster motion toward the east-northeast is expected tonight and on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will continue to move across Virginia this afternoon, and emerge over the western Atlantic by this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast once Zeta moves over the western Atlantic, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal system by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) were recently reported at a station in Conway, North Carolina, to the east of Roanoke Rapids. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will continue to spread across portions of eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia through this evening. RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and lower to middle Ohio Valley through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in possible flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon across the Carolinas and southern Virginia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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