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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-11-06 03:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060231 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Graphics
2020-10-29 21:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 20:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Oct 2020 21:24:58 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-10-29 21:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292037 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 Zeta lost tropical characteristics and was declared post-tropical a few hours ago. The surface pressure field has become elongated with the center now embedded within a frontal zone over the Mid-Atlantic states. The maximum sustained winds are still estimated to be 45 kt, based on an observation received from northeastern North Carolina a few hours ago, and winds have been increasing at marine sites located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Zeta is zooming toward the east-northeast (060/48 kt), and its center is just about to move off the Delmarva Peninsula over the western Atlantic waters. This motion should continue for the next day or so since Zeta is embedded within fast westerly flow ahead of a strong mid-level trough. Some baroclinic re-intensification is expected over the next day or so while Zeta moves farther out over the western Atlantic, and the 12-hour forecast intensity is based on the GFS and ECMWF global models. Zeta's center is expected to dissipate within the frontal zone by 24 hours, with another strong low pressure area likely to develop and move toward the north Atlantic over the next several days. The forecast wind radii are based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory issued on Zeta. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php KEY MESSAGES: 1. Strong wind gusts are still possible over portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours. 2. Through this evening, the last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta is expected over the Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta (AT3/AL282020)
2020-10-29 21:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ZETA ZOOMING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 the center of Zeta was located near 38.8, -75.3 with movement ENE at 55 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-10-29 21:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 292036 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 ...ZETA ZOOMING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 75.3W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM WSW OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 55 MPH...89 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 75.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western Atlantic this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, but the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal system on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at Ocean City, Maryland. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. WIND: A few strong gusts are still possible across portions of extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours. RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Additional rainfall totals of an inch or less are expected across these areas, possibly resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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