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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Graphics
2020-10-05 01:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 23:32:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:33:26 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 01:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Twenty-Six was located near 16.9, -76.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-10-05 01:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042332 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 76.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the disturbance is expected to pass just south of Jamaica tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Graphics
2020-10-04 23:05:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:05:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 21:33:26 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-10-04 23:02:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042102 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forward speed of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72 hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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