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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-06 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060231 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so, but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC advisory. The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near 5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico. It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days. This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for more than another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-06 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 060231 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-06 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Gamma was located near 21.6, -88.4 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-06 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 060231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 88.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is currently centered along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and will move inland through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated and Gamma is forecast to dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through midweek, the remnants of Gamma are expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-06 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060231 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 120SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 88.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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