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Tropical Depression Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-06-26 10:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Boris Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-06-26 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Boris Graphics
2020-06-26 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 02:35:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 02:35:43 GMT
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boris
Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-06-26 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Boris (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-26 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BORIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Jun 25 the center of Boris was located near 11.4, -137.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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