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Hurricane Hanna Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-07-25 23:01:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 21:01:59 GMT
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Hurricane Hanna Graphics
2020-07-25 22:59:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 20:59:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 21:31:44 GMT
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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-25 22:59:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252059 TCDAT3 Hurricane Hanna Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Hanna has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A 30-nmi-wide eye remains distinct in the radar data, and dropsonde and 700-mb flight-level-level height data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has decreased to 973 mb. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 86 kt on its last outbound leg, which equates to about 77 kt at the surface. Coincident with the flight-level wind data were SFMR surface wind speeds of 80 kt. In addition, Doppler velocity values have been averaging close to 100 kt between 5000-6000 ft in the northern and northeastern eyewall, which converts to 80-kt surface wind speed estimates. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt. No further strengthening is anticipated before the center of Hanna's eye makes landfall along the south Texas coast in a few hours. Doppler radar and aircraft reconnaissance fixes indicate that Hanna has finally made the much anticipated turn toward the west-southwest, now showing an initial motion of 255/07 kt. A west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours, which will take Hanna well inland over south Texas, followed by eventual dissipation in about 48 h over over the mountains of northeastern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies near the center of the tightly packed consensus models. Key Messages 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions will continue within the Hurricane Warning area along the Texas coast through this evening. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of South Texas where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains will result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.8N 97.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 26.7N 98.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hanna Public Advisory Number 12
2020-07-25 22:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252057 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 ...HANNA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT NEARS THE TEXAS COAST... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF PADRE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 97.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning north of Port Aransas, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Port O'Connor, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * Port Aransas to Port O'Connor Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning areas. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hanna was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 97.2 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area later this afternoon or early this evening. After landfall, the center of Hanna will move inland over south Texas tonight and move into northeastern Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is still possible before Hanna makes landfall in a few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A TCOON observation station at Laguna Madre, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Port Aransas including Corpus Christi Bay...4-6 ft Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay...2-4 ft North of Port Aransas to Sargent including Copano Bay , Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1-3 ft North of Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread inland through this evening. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches through Monday in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain will produce life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Hanna is also expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-07-25 22:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 252054 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MCALLEN TX 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MCALLEN TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HARLINGEN TX 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HARLINGEN TX 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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