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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Graphics
2020-11-19 21:42:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 20:42:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:24:26 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192032 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent, organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25 kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease, and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36 hours, per the latest global model guidance. Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-19 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192032 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OVER COOLER WATER, POLO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 1:00 PM PST Thu Nov 19 the center of Polo was located near 16.9, -121.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Public Advisory Number 9
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 192031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 ...OVER COOLER WATER, POLO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 121.3W ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 121.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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