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Tropical Depression Polo Public Advisory Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Polo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 ...POLO NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 120.3W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Polo was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 120.3 West. Polo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Polo is expected to become a remnant low later today. The remnant low is then forecast to dissipate by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 191433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Polo Graphics
2020-11-19 09:49:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 08:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 08:49:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Polo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-19 09:48:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a 0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt. A low-/mid-level ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-19 09:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POLO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM PST Thu Nov 19 the center of Polo was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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