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Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-19 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192031 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Polo Graphics
2020-11-19 15:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 14:35:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Nov 2020 14:35:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Polo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020 700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020 Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but none have lasted for more than about an hour or two. ASCAT-C data received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 2.0. For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be a 30-kt tropical depression. Polo has not maintained enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this afternoon. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner. Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24 hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates. This pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Polo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-11-19 15:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020 1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Polo (EP1/EP212020)
2020-11-19 15:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POLO NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM PST Thu Nov 19 the center of Polo was located near 17.1, -120.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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