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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...DEPRESSION MAINTAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 111.0W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). The system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest or west for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. It will likely dissipate on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 111.0W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-07-13 16:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2019-07-13 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 08:33:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 09:30:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-13 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019 300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019 The depression has a ragged and sheared appearance. The low-level center briefly became exposed several hours ago before a burst of deep convection developed over the southwestern semicircle. The subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to support a 30-kt system, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. The convective maximum over warm SSTs will likely maintain this current increase in the convection through mid morning. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to entrain stable air to its west while continuing to be impacted by 20 kt of northeasterly shear. This should cause a weakening trend to begin later on today or tonight. By Sunday, the system is expected to become a remnant low devoid of deep convection. Shortly thereafter, the low will degenerate into a trough. The official intensity forecast is in agreement with all available intensity guidance, with just some minor variations in timing noted between the model solutions. The current motion is 305/13 kt. The aforementioned exposed center allowed for a northeastward adjustment of the cyclone's position over the past 12 hours or so. This northwestward motion is expected to continue while the system maintains its convection. Once the convection dissipates, the system will become steered more toward the west-northwest to west in the lower-level steering flow. The latest forecast track is very near the previous official forecast and is near the track model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
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