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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-05-26 22:52:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 262051 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 Before departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent in visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this morning. Data from the plane indicate that the center had reformed in that location and that the pressure had fallen to 999 mb. The aircraft did not sample the area to the east of the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and surface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave trough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough over the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form during the next 24 hours. This is expected to result in deepening of Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. The shear is forecast to decrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and the system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like structure before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast once again calls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little strengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air intrusion. The system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours, however, the reformation of the center today makes the initial motion estimate more uncertain than normal. Alberto should move northward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn north-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as it moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low. The dynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but have shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models lie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward 1800 UTC initial position of Alberto. As a result, the NHC track is along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise between the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers. The new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida and a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday and will continue into next week. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are possible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 23.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 72H 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-05-26 22:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 262051 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) THE VILLAGES 34 2 14(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 11 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NAPLES FL 34 13 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FT MYERS FL 34 12 10(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) VENICE FL 34 17 20(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) TAMPA FL 34 6 24(30) 3(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 27(29) 8(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 15(15) 23(38) 5(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 20(20) 22(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 1 30(31) 36(67) 4(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 52(53) 26(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 21(21) 42(63) 8(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 9( 9) 41(50) 17(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 16(24) 1(25) X(25) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 14(39) X(39) X(39) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 36(40) 18(58) 8(66) X(66) X(66) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 38(42) 18(60) 8(68) X(68) X(68) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 20(20) 44(64) 8(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 19(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-26 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat May 26 the center of Alberto was located near 23.3, -85.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 6
2018-05-26 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 262051 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018 ...ALBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 85.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach to the Anclote River. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from the Aucilla River westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued to the west of the Mouth of the Pearl River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Anclote River * Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northward or north-northeastward motion is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwest turn on Sunday, and this general motion should continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwest Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from eastern Louisiana, across much of Mississippi, Alabama, western Tennessee and the western Florida panhandle. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Cuba through this evening. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning area along the west coast of Florida beginning Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by early Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west-central Florida, including the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-05-26 22:51:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 262050 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 2100 UTC SAT MAY 26 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE AUCILLA RIVER WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED TO THE WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * DRY TORTUGAS * BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER * AUCILLA RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES PORTION OF THAT WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 85.1W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 85.1W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.4N 84.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.5N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.9N 86.3W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.0N 87.0W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 33.6N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 38.3N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 42.4N 83.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 85.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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