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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-27 07:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALBERTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun May 27 the center of Alberto was located near 24.2, -84.5 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 7A
2018-05-27 07:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270532 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 200 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 84.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Anclote River * Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.5 West. The storm is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later this morning, and a motion toward the north-northwest is forecast this afternoon through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and make landfall over the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Steady weakening is expected after Alberto makes landfall. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski Shoals, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few hours ago was 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States later today and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas, and these conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area along the west coast of Florida later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and south Florida overnight, and are possible across the entire state of Florida later today. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-05-27 06:02:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 04:02:04 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-05-27 06:02:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 04:02:04 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-05-27 05:08:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270307 CCA TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 Corrected typo in key message 3 During the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just north of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the center to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position. Despite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best ambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened. The maximum flight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35 kt at the surface. The maximum SFMR winds outside of the convective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than the associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they were. In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt which may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the strength of the storm. Finally, the central pressure has not fallen since the previous mission and is near 1001 mb. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative. In the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm due to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just west of the cyclone. After that time, the trough is forecast to become a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or just north of the low in an area of lighter shear. This evolution should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become more symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto transitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h. There is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane before landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt peak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast. After landfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken over land through the remainder of the forecast period. For the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward, although some additional eastward reformation of the center remains possible. From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move north-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low. This should be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern United States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the westerlies. The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the previous track. On the current forecast track, Alberto would make landfall near the 48 h point. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast region and portions of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday and will continue into next week. 2. Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 23.9N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 25.9N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.9N 86.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 29/0000Z 30.4N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 72H 30/0000Z 34.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/0000Z 39.0N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/0000Z 42.5N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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