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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2019-09-20 16:45:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201445 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 5(25) 1(26) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 2(16) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 33
2019-09-20 16:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 130.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 130.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-20 10:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:34:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 08:34:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 32
2019-09-20 10:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate. Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several more days. Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-20 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -130.1 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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