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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2019-09-21 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 15(36) 2(38) X(38) 1(39) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 38
2019-09-21 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 45SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.6W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-21 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:55:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:31:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 37
2019-09-21 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory. It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-21 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO TURNS WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS ENDURING TREK ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.4, -131.1 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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