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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Graphics
2017-09-16 16:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 14:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:38:25 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-16 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161451 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized with curved banding features now better established. Since there is still no indication of a well-defined center and because tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, NHC has initiated advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 280/19, but this is uncertain due to the lack of a clear center. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens but remains nearly stationary. The NHC track forecast takes the system across the Leeward Islands in a few days and then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that confidence in the track and forward speed of this system is low due to the spread in the models and the current lack of a well-defined center. The disturbance is expected to be in environmental conditions conducive for strengthening during the next several days as the shear is expected to be 10 kt or less while the cyclone moves over warm 29 deg C SSTs. These conditions should allow for at least steady strengthening, and the models unanimously show that trend. The NHC intensity forecast is conservative for now, but does show the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week. These conditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 12.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-16 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 161450 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 23(47) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 27(46) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 25(54) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 20(56) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 16(58) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 15(58) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 36(57) 8(65) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 6(30) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 30(64) 4(68) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 4(34) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 22(63) 3(66) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 2(31) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 21(67) 2(69) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) 2(35) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 14(69) 1(70) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 10(34) 1(35) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 19(41) 4(45) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 41(50) 9(59) X(59) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) 1(27) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 4(48) 1(49) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) 1(21) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 4(32) X(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 2(27) X(27) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-16 16:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen was located near 12.2, -50.5 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-16 16:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 161449 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique and Guadeloupe. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands. Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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