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BIFM reviews Queen’s Speech to assess potential impact on facilities management sector
2017-06-26 15:34:00| BIFM News
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 16:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 14:38:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 15:29:33 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-06-20 16:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201436 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low has become better organized since yesterday, but still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears to have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer to the low's circulation center. For now the system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system could be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. The current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on continuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical shear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off the Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the there are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a mean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a better-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered generally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts with the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more north-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve around the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows the system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by 48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central Appalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Given the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 25.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 21/0000Z 26.7N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/1200Z 27.4N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 28.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 30.1N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 37.5N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-06-20 16:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 201434 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 10 4(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 34 28 2(30) X(30) X(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 34 67 12(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 34 5 12(17) 8(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 8(10) 11(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 10(12) 12(24) 5(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 930W 34 8 43(51) 18(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) FORT POLK LA 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 13(24) 5(29) 1(30) X(30) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 14(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 1 11(12) 24(36) 10(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 15(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 14(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 6( 7) 19(26) 13(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 1 5( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 7( 8) 12(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 6( 7) 20(27) 12(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST REMAINS THE BIGGEST THREAT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Three was located near 25.9, -90.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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