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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-25 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251432 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's scatterometer data that this is conservative. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h. Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast. Key messages: 1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-25 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 251431 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT STENNIS MS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 930W 34 19 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172019)
2019-10-25 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Seventeen was located near 25.6, -94.4 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-10-25 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 94.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 94.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-25 16:31:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251431 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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