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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2017-10-09 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2017 08:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2017 09:22:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-10-09 10:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 The well-defined low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of the Azores has maintained an area of deep convection near and to the east of the center for the past several hours. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria for a tropical depression. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0000 UTC and a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The depression is moving slowly northward at 3 kt, and a continued slow north to north-northeast motion is expected today. A turn to the east and then southeast is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Wednesday while the cyclone is steered by the flow on the east side of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough is expected to approach the depression, and that should cause the system to move a little faster to the east and east-northeast. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, in agreement with various consensus aids, and keeps the system far from any land areas. The depression is currently over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear. The models suggest that the shear will likely let up a little during the next couple of days, which could allow the depression to gradually strengthen while it remains over relatively warm waters. After that time, the shear could increase again, but the amount of shear depends on the exact track of the tropical cyclone. There is a fair amount of spread in the models at the longer range with the regional models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC) bringing the system to hurricane strength while the statistical SHIPS and LGEM models show a much weaker system. The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the more conservative side of the guidance for now, but it should be noted that confidence in the intensity forecast is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 31.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.5N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 31.7N 39.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 31.5N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 31.0N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 29.7N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 31.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-10-09 10:32:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 090832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-09 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 9 the center of Seventeen was located near 31.1, -39.9 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-10-09 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 39.9W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 39.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn to the east and east-southeast is expected to occur tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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