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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-13 16:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 14:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Oct 2017 14:45:32 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-13 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 13 the center of Ophelia was located near 31.8, -32.9 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 18
2017-10-13 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131436 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 32.9W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 32.9 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday with an increase in forward speed. A faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin Saturday night and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will pass near or southeast of the southeastern Azores late Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-10-13 16:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 131436 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-10-13 16:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131435 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC FRI OCT 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 32.9W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 32.9W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 33.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.6N 30.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.1N 27.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N 22.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 160SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.7N 17.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 60.0N 4.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 32.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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