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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-12 10:47:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 08:47:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 09:25:28 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-10-12 10:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120840 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 Satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually become better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a well-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually cooling. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of the intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt. The initial motion is 040/3. Ophelia is currently in an area of light steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude westerlies. The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to amplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the forecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few days. The track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an update of the previous forecast. Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next 24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during this time in agreement with the guidance. After that, the hurricane is expected to move over cooler water. As that happens, though, interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help Ophelia keep its intensity. Extratropical transition should begin by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic low by 96 h. The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h as a powerful extratropical low. Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 30.3N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 30.7N 35.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 31.3N 34.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.2N 32.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 33.7N 28.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 38.5N 20.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 49.0N 13.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 17/0600Z 59.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-12 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 12 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.3, -35.6 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 13
2017-10-12 10:39:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 120839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 ...OPHELIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 35.6W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of Ophelia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed a by faster motion toward the east-northeast or northeast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or two. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-10-12 10:39:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 120839 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 1(32) X(32) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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