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Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics

2017-10-11 10:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 08:46:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Oct 2017 09:25:29 GMT

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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 9

2017-10-11 10:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110836 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 Ophelia has become better organized during the past several hours, with convective banding now wrapping almost all of the way around the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, and several recent microwave-based intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 55 kt. The initial motion is now 125/5. Ophelia should continue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the next 12-24 hours with a decrease in forward speed while it remains embedded within a mid- to upper-level trough to the south of the mid-latitude westerlies. After that, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic. The latest track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario. However, there has been a significant northward shift in the 120 h forecasts since the last advisory. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then is adjusted northward at the 96 and 120 h points. It should be noted, though, that the 120 h point is to the south of the consensus and large-scale models, and additional northward adjustments may be required later. The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3 days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast now calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 24 hours. Extratropical transition is likely to start around day 4 and be complete by day 5, with the associated baroclinic dynamics expected to keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 30.2N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.1N 35.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.2N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 33.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 37.5N 20.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 43.0N 13.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-11 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OPHELIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 11 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.2, -37.0 with movement SE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 9

2017-10-11 10:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 110834 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC WED OCT 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 37.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 37.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 37.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 36.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.1N 35.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 35.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.2N 34.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 37.5N 20.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 43.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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