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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-12 16:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 14:39:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Oct 2017 15:25:11 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-12 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 12 the center of Ophelia was located near 30.5, -35.6 with movement NNE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 14
2017-10-12 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017 ...OPHELIA MEANDERING SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 35.6W ABOUT 715 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the eastern Azores should monitor the progress of Ophelia. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 35.6 West. Ophelia is drifting north-northeastward around 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster east-northeastward motion on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-10-12 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 121432 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) X(40) X(40) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-10-12 16:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121432 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC THU OCT 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 35.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 230SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 35.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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