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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-10-10 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 38.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 38.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 31.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.8N 37.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.2N 37.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 36.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.0N 35.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 33.0N 30.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.5N 23.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 38.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-10-10 10:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 100831 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC TUE OCT 10 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-10 04:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 02:58:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Oct 2017 02:58:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-10 04:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100252 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 Ophelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep convection. At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while the CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved structure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial intensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory. While the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear currently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some between now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies. Even though the system will be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures likely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue. The mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be somewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows distinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days. The official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification through day 3, then slow weakening thereafter. This is close to a blend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model and is slightly above that of the previous advisory. The initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the low-level center is along the southern edge of the deep convection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat unexpectedly - this evening. Despite this, the model guidance suggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia and force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south during the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get kicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is north of the previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the long term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the previous forecast. The initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward based upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 32.3N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.5N 38.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 32.0N 38.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 31.1N 37.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 30.4N 37.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 30.8N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.5N 32.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 34.5N 26.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-10 04:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA REMAINS FAR OUT TO SEA AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 9 the center of Ophelia was located near 32.3, -39.0 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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