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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-25 03:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Nov 2019 02:33:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Nov 2019 03:24:19 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-11-25 03:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250232 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 Sebastien has lost its tropical characteristics this evening. The deep convection has decoupled from the low-level circulation, and these features are now separated by a distance of 100 n mi and increasing. Two partial ASCAT passes revealed that the surface low is becoming stretched out, and there is some evidence of a boundary, possibly a front, extending northeast from the center. Furthermore, recent observations from Corbo and Flores islands in the Azores indicated a slight temperature decrease as the center passed by to the north of those islands, suggesting that a weak cold front is associated with the the cyclone. Based on all of these data, there is high confidence that Sebastien has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. The initial advisory intensity is 50 kt which is based on 47 kt winds sampled by the scatterometer and a subjective intensity estimate from TAFB. Post-tropical cyclone Sebastien is moving northeastward at 35 kt, embedded in the strong flow to the southeast of a mid- to upper- level trough. This motion, and the cyclone's current intensity, is expected to persist for the next day or so, before the cyclone merges with a higher-latitude low. The cyclone will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more details. Additional information on this system can be found in: High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 41.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 22.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0000Z 48.1N 14.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-11-25 03:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250232 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC MON NOV 25 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONTA DELGADA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-11-25 03:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250231 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC MON NOV 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEBASTIEN. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 28.9W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 170SE 190SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 420SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 28.9W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 30.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 22.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 190SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 28.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SEBASTIEN. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-25 03:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Nov 24 the center of Sebastien was located near 41.0, -28.9 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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