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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-11-23 21:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 232037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 45.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 45.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 37.8N 35.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 40.9N 27.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.8N 19.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 45.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-23 15:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 14:55:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Nov 2019 15:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-11-23 15:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 231454 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 First-light visible imagery and a few late-arriving microwave overpasses revealed that Sebastien's elongated center is located well northeast of previous estimates. It isn't clear if the center reformed or if it simply accelerated more than expected overnight, but the initial motion estimate is now 055/23 kt. A significant change to the track forecast was made based on the updated initial position, and the NHC forecast now shows a much faster motion for Sebastien. The cyclone's cloud pattern is somewhat ragged and does not look entirely tropical. That said, Sebastien is still producing enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical storm. Unfortunately, no ASCAT data was available this morning to help assess the strength of the winds or how well-defined the circulation is at the surface. The initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt based primarily on continuity from previous advisories, but this could be generous since Dvorak intensity estimates are lower. Every aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain. The models have been extremely inconsistent in forecasting Sebastien, with the guidance varying drastically from run to run and with unusually large spread in each forecast. The latest indications are that Sebastien will move quickly northeastward with little change in strength for the next few days before it eventually opens into a trough around the time it nears the Azores in a couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone will still produce enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical storm through Sunday, though it could become post-tropical before it reaches the Azores. Given the elongated nature of Sebastien's circulation and its fast forward speed, it could also open into a trough and dissipate at any time. It is not currently clear if Sebastien will reach the Azores as a tropical storm. Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants could bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 30.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 32.1N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 34.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 39.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 17
2019-11-23 15:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 ...SEBASTIEN DISORGANIZED BUT APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 47.7W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A fast northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in the maximum wind speed is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical by Monday and it could become a remnant trough of low pressure sooner than that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants could bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-11-23 15:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 231452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) X(40) X(40) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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