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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2019-11-23 09:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 604 FONT15 KNHC 230833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-23 09:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Nov 23 the center of Sebastien was located near 27.8, -50.6 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 16

2019-11-23 09:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230832 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 ...SEBASTIEN HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 50.6W ABOUT 1535 MI...2465 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 50.6 West. Sebastien is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Sebastien is forecast to dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 16

2019-11-23 09:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 50.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 50.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 31.6N 44.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.0N 38.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 37.0N 31.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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