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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-24 03:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 02:54:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 03:24:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-24 03:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN REFUSES TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Nov 23 the center of Sebastien was located near 34.4, -43.1 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 19
2019-11-24 03:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 ...SEBASTIEN REFUSES TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 43.1W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 43.1 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and an even faster motion in that general direction is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical late on Sunday and dissipate early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-11-24 03:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 240253 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 75(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-11-24 03:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240252 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 43.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 300SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 43.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.1N 31.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.9N 22.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.0N 14.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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