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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-09 13:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 31.2, -61.5 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 35A
2021-09-09 13:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 61.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda later today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-09 10:49:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:49:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:49:17 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 35
2021-09-09 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 652 WTNT42 KNHC 090846 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 This morning's conventional satellite presentation appears to indicate a more banding eye feature rather than a previously noted irregular-type eye. A timely Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) image and an AMSR2 lower frequency pass, however, clearly shows the majority of the eyewall intact. The primary curved band wrapping around the west semicircle consists of -78 Celsius cloud tops. The western portion of the eyewall is now discernible on the Bermuda Weather Service Radar. The initial intensity is held at possibly generous 85 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. A 53rd Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance mission is scheduled for this morning and will provide new information on Larry's intensity. The 0000 UTC GFS global model sounding revealed 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly effective shear impinging on the western half of the cyclone while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis showed 20-25 kt of bulk shear in the same area. This, along with a significantly higher statically stable surrounding environment (about 55 percent RH), has disrupted the inner core and more than likely created a SW to NW tilt with height. Larry is expected to change little in strength during the next 12 to 24 hours, then gradually weaken as the cyclone traverses sharply decreasing cooler water north of the gulf stream while the southwesterly shear increases significantly. The dynamic forcing, however, associated with a mid-latitude major shortwave trough near Atlantic Canada should aid in maintaining Larry as a hurricane while it passes near or over Newfoundland. Afterwards, Larry is expected to transition into a large extratropical cyclone, as indicated by the FSU Cyclone Phase Diagram. By early next week, Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 330/14 kt. The track philosophy remains unchanged. Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system anchored over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda later today while slowly turning north-northwestward and northward. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Larry should accelerate generally northeastward in response to the aforementioned mid-latitude trough and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. The wind radii were decreased slightly in all quadrants based on earlier METOP A and B scatterometer passes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda later today, Tropical storm conditions are expected today, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for southeastern Newfoundland. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-09 10:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 30.9, -61.1 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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