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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-09-08 16:53:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 567 WTNT42 KNHC 081453 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 Larry's eye has been only faintly apparent on recent satellite imagery, but the hurricane is still maintaining a fair amount of deep convection near/around the center. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Larry a little while ago and observations found that the central pressure has risen only slightly since yesterday, with peak flight level winds of 118 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were only 75 kt, indicating that the strong winds aloft are not very effectively being transported to the surface. Given this, along with the slightly-degraded appearance of the system, the current intensity is reduced to 95 kt, which is just a bit above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane is moving northwestward at a slightly faster clip, or 320/11 kt. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, Larry is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure area and pass to the east of Bermuda. Thereafter, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough moving through the northeastern United States and become embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This will take Larry near or over southeastern Newfoundland in 60-66 hours and then over the far North Atlantic. The official forecast track has not changed significantly from those in the previous few advisories, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Larry should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and warm surface waters for the next 36-48 hours. However, the oceanic heat content beneath the hurricane should be gradually decreasing during the next few days. Only slow weakening is forecast, similar to the latest NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction. In about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Larry will become embedded within a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast shows it as an extratropical cyclone by that time. In 5 days or less, the system is expected to merge with another large cyclone at high latitudes. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Bermuda. Significant swells will begin to reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada later today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there there Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 27.7N 58.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-09-08 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 532 FONT12 KNHC 081452 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 1(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 81(81) 1(82) X(82) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 1(48) X(48) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 18(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-08 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 8 the center of Larry was located near 27.7, -58.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 32
2021-09-08 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARRY STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...CAUSING DANGEROUS SWELLS ON THE WESTERN ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 58.3W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 58.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-09-08 16:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 58.3W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 39.1N 60.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 44.4N 55.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 61.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...MERGED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 58.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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