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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 34A
2021-09-09 07:59:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090559 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY'S OUTER BANDS APPROACHING BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 60.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Hurricane Watch for southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts northward to Pouch Cove. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts and from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 60.8 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda today. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-09-09 04:58:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090258 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak 700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track guidance consensus. The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-09 04:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:56:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:56:56 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-09-09 04:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 090254 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) X(54) X(54) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 43(43) 44(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 47(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 15(61) X(61) X(61) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 18 13(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-09 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY STILL A VERY LARGE HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 8 the center of Larry was located near 29.7, -60.3 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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