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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-03 22:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 935 FONT12 KNHC 032038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 17(17) 15(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 81(81) 6(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 46(46) 9(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 66(69) 4(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 35(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 77(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 45(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 67(68) 6(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 36(36) 7(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 27(27) 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 8(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 20(20) 11(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Gordon was located near 26.2, -82.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 442 WTNT32 KNHC 032038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 82.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to Dauphin Island, Alabama. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Upper Florida Keys and from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida early this evening, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on earlier reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue for the next few hours in the warning area across southwestern Florida. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-09-03 22:38:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 444 WTNT22 KNHC 032038 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 2100 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO DAUPHIN ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF SHELL BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER * EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH * WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 82.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 82.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.3N 84.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.9N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.1N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.5N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 38.2N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 82.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 5A
2018-09-03 19:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 095 WTNT32 KNHC 031747 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...GORDON STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE UPPER KEYS... ...STORM SURGE WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 81.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Golden Beach to Bonita Beach * Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay * Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 81.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a west- northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move farther away from the southwestern coast of Florida this afternoon and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. The center of Gordon will approach the coast within the warning area along the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to the Mississippi-Alabama border...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through early Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through this afternoon in the warning areas across South Florida and the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the central Gulf Coast warning area by late Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the hurricane watch area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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