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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 7

2018-09-04 04:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 566 WTNT22 KNHC 040246 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO DAUPHIN ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF SHELL BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER * EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 84.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 84.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.3N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.0N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.6N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.9N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 36.5N 94.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 39.5N 93.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)

2018-09-04 02:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GORDON STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Gordon was located near 26.7, -83.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 6A

2018-09-04 02:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 834 WTNT32 KNHC 040031 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 6A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Corrected to remove erroneous text in the Watch/Warning section. ...GORDON STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 83.4W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the southwest coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by Tuesday evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)

2018-09-04 01:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GORDON STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 the center of Gordon was located near 26.7, -83.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 6A

2018-09-04 01:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 342 WTNT32 KNHC 032349 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018 ...GORDON STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 83.4W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the southwest coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island late Tuesday or Tuesday night A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located by NOAA Doppler weather radar and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late Tuesday or Tuesday night, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Gordon is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over southern Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, and southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches through late Thursday. These rainfall amounts may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by Tuesday evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southern and west-central Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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