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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 8

2018-09-04 10:45:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 182 WTNT22 KNHC 040845 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO DAUPHIN ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF SHELL BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER * EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 85.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 85.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 30.7N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.4N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.9N 94.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 40.0N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 85.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)

2018-09-04 07:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 4 the center of Gordon was located near 27.3, -85.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 7A

2018-09-04 07:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 04 2018 345 WTNT32 KNHC 040544 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 85.0W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.0 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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