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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-09-04 10:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 696 WTNT42 KNHC 040847 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 Gordon has changed little in organization on geostationary satellite images or on the WSR-88D radar presentation over the past several hours. The storm has a small CDO with convective banding features primarily over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Overall the cloud pattern is indicative of moderate westerly shear over the system, likely associated with an upper-level trough near the central Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gordon a few hours ago and reported maximum SFMR-measured surface winds of 54 kt. On this basis the intensity had been adjusted to 55 kt, which is somewhat above the latest Dvorak estimates. It is assumed that the shear will not be strong enough to inhibit at least some strengthening before landfall, so the tropical cyclone is still forecast to become a hurricane later today. The official forecast, prior to landfall, is close to the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and near the upper end of the guidance suite. Gordon should weaken rapidly after landfall in the lower Mississippi Valley region. The motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt. There is little or no change to the NHC track prediction or forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Gordon is expected to move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area and make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast within 24 hours. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to move northwestward, along the western side of the high, at a reduced forward speed. Late in the forecast period Gordon, or its post-tropical remnant, should turn northward to north-northeastward as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is near the model consensus and very close to the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning areas this afternoon. 2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 27.7N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 30.7N 89.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 33.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 34.9N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 37.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 40.0N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2018-09-04 10:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 005 FONT12 KNHC 040846 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 71 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GFMX 290N 870W 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOBILE AL 34 1 58(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MOBILE AL 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MOBILE AL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X 93(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GULFPORT MS 50 X 47(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GULFPORT MS 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X 84(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) STENNIS MS 50 X 38(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) STENNIS MS 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 X 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BURAS LA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 10(10) 40(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) JACKSON MS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 30(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)

2018-09-04 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GORDON CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 the center of Gordon was located near 27.7, -85.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 8

2018-09-04 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 881 WTNT32 KNHC 040846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...GORDON CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 85.7W ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.7 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is expected after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island, Alabama...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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