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Summary for Hurricane Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-25 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Irwin was located near 15.6, -119.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Irwin Public Advisory Number 13
2017-07-25 16:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Irwin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...IRWIN A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 119.4W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irwin was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 119.4 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow west-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours, but some weakening could begin by late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-07-25 16:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251433 TCMEP5 HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.7N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.2N 122.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Irwin Graphics
2017-07-25 11:03:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 09:03:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 09:03:14 GMT
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Hurricane Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-25 10:58:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250858 TCDEP5 Hurricane Irwin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Deep convection associated with Irwin now wraps almost all of the way around the center, and there have been occasional hints of a eye in microwave and conventional satellite imagery. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are just below hurricane strength, while several objective estimates, including the CIMSS satellite consensus, are above hurricane strength. With the attempts at eye formation, the initial intensity will lean toward the higher intensity estimates, and thus Irwin is upgraded to a hurricane. The initial motion is a little more northward than before at 300/4. A slow westward motion is forecast today as a weak mid-level ridge remains in place to the north of the storm. A west-southwestward motion is expected between 24-72 h as Hurricane Hilary approaches from the east. After that, Irwin is expected to undergo an binary interaction with Hilary, with the most likely result for Irwin being a generally northward motion around the eastern semicircle of Hilary. The details of this are still uncertain, with the ECMWF and Canadian models merging the two cyclones before 120 h, while the GFS and UKMET keep them separate until after 120 h. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h. After that, it leans towards the GFS/UKMET in keeping the cyclone separate and accelerating Irwin around the eastern side of Hilary. Little change in strength is likely for the next 24 h. After that, increasing shear associated with the outflow of Hilary is likely to cause Irwin to weaken, although there is considerable spread in the guidance as to how much shear and how much weakening. By the end of the forecast period, cooler water along the forecast track and proximity to Hilary should cause additional weakening. The new forecast track is a slight adjustment of the previous track. An alternative intensity scenario is that Irwin dissipates as it is absorbed by Hilary before 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 15.5N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.3N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 15.0N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 14.6N 121.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 14.3N 122.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 14.0N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 16.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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