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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-07-27 16:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 271435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 93 3(96) 2(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 38 14(52) 9(61) X(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 2 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 23(26) 9(35) X(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-27 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN HANGING IN THERE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Irwin was located near 15.0, -124.2 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 21
2017-07-27 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...IRWIN HANGING IN THERE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 124.2W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 124.2 West. Irwin is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is anticipated during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-07-27 16:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-27 11:00:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 09:00:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 09:30:23 GMT
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