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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-07-24 22:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.2N 118.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 119.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 121.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.2N 122.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Graphics
2017-07-24 17:03:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:03:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:03:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-07-24 16:58:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241458 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Irwin's structure continues to improve, with the low-level center embedded beneath a CDO feature that has persisted for the past several hours. In addition, recent microwave data have revealed the formation of a mid-level eye. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates now range between T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is raised accordingly to 50 kt. For once, the track forecast for a tropical cyclone is more challenging and more uncertain that its intensity forecast. Irwin is expected to have some binary interaction with Hurricane Hilary beginning in about 3 days, but the amount of interaction is still highly uncertain. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models all show a strong Fujiwhara interaction, with Irwin swinging to the east and northeast of Hilary by day 5. The GFS shows much less interaction, with Irwin staying well to the southwest of Hilary on day 5, and the regional HWRF and HMON models don't even seem to know about Hilary's existence to allow an interaction to occur. Needless to say, there is significant, higher-than-normal spread in the track guidance beginning in about 72 hours. The updated NHC track forecast continues to show a slow westward motion through day 3, followed by an acceleration toward the northwest and north-northwest on days 4 and 5. At the longer ranges, this forecast is closest to HCCA, but future adjustments are likely due to the significant spread among the models and their ensemble members. Since it appears that Irwin is developing a well-defined inner core, it is likely well on its way to becoming a hurricane. Vertical shear is forecast to be low for the next 48 hours or so, while sea surface temperatures are very warm between 28-29 deg Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is generally a blend of HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus, bringing Irwin to hurricane status by 24 hours. Significant strengthening beyond that threshold is not anticipated at this time due to the possibility of increased shear from Hilary's outflow, and the NHC forecast shows little change in intensity between days 3 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.8N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.8N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.0N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 15.0N 119.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 14.9N 120.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 14.4N 122.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-07-24 16:58:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241458 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 14(14) 61(75) 16(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) 15N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 22(54) 4(58) 1(59) 1(60) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 6(41) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm IRWIN (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-24 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of IRWIN was located near 14.8, -117.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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