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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 5

2017-07-23 16:55:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231455 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 116.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 14.0N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics

2017-07-23 11:01:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 09:01:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Jul 2017 09:35:52 GMT

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-07-23 10:53:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017 An ASCAT-B overpass at 0516 UTC showed several vectors of 32-33 kt winds and a max value of 34 kt in the northeast quadrant of the tropical cyclone. Based on that data, the system has been named Tropical Storm Irwin. Irwin is the fifth system to be named in the eastern North Pacific so far in July. Although the system has been upgraded based on the ASCAT data, the structure has not improved. Shortwave-IR imagery shows that the low-level center is clearly exposed to the northwest of the deep convection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not increased. The global models suggest that the shear should decrease quite a bit after about 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification. The regional dynamical models HWRF and COAMPS-TC depict Irwin quickly recovering from its current sheared state and intensifying to a category 2 or 3 hurricane. On the other hand, the statistical models still only show modest strengthening, and keep Irwin below hurricane strength. As a course of least regret, the intensity forecast splits these two scenarios, but slightly favors the lower statistical guidance since the dynamical models may show the structure of Irwin recovering from the current shear too quickly. Near the end of the forecast period, Irwin is expected to encounter a higher shear environment, due in part to outflow from Hilary to the east, so the forecast depicts gradual weakening. The initial motion is 280/6 kt. Irwin continues to be steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Although no significant changes have been made to the track forecast, confidence is still somewhat low since there is a fair amount of speed-spread in the models. The GFS remains an outlier in being the only model that shows substantial binary interaction with Hilary, and is thus the farthest east, though the 00 UTC ECMWF is also a little slower than before. The official forecast is a little slower at the end of forecast period than the previous advisory, but still assumes that any significant track deviation due to interactions with Hilary will occur beyond 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.7N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 15.0N 118.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 14.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 14.0N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2017-07-23 10:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230852 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC SUN JUL 23 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 17 1(18) 2(20) 1(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 36(72) 3(75) 1(76) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 16(39) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-23 10:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...YET ANOTHER DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... ...THE FIFTH NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN JULY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 the center of Irwin was located near 14.7, -115.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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