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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-11 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 141 FOPZ14 KNHC 110239 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 7 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 115W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 18(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-11 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110238 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 20:33:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 20:33:50 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane. The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island. The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days. Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF, UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 102032 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 3 49(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 115W 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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