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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-12 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 22.5, -116.5 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 13
2020-08-12 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA BEGINS TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 116.5W ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday and degenerate to remnant low on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-12 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120235 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-11 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:36:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 20:36:56 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to justify lowering the initial intensity yet. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from the previous advisory. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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