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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-12 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 122036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 ...ELIDA LOSING STRENGTH FAST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 119.6W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 119.6 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward or north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Elida is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is then expected to dissipate by early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida will continue to affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula today and will begin to subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-12 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida's last remaining deep convection dissipated just after the issuance of the previous advisory, brought on by cold ocean water of only 22-23 degrees Celsius. Of the two ASCAT passes near the cyclone today, neither caught the likely area of strongest winds. Therefore, the maximum winds are lowered to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective estimates between 45-55 kt and objective numbers between 30-40 kt. Cold water and increasing shear should continue Elida's quick weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, barring the unlikely chance that deep convection redevelops. The remnant low is then forecast to dissipate in 48 hours in accordance with global model guidance. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending southwest of California, which has caused a break in the subtropical ridge, is expected to allow Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward soon. This forecast reasoning has not changed, however one change to the new NHC track forecast is that it is not as fast as is being shown by the model trackers. Global model fields suggest that Elida's low- to mid-level circulation will get pulled northward by increasing shear (which is reflected by the model trackers), leaving the surface circulation to the south. Given this discrepancy, the NHC forecast is to the south of most of the guidance to account for the actual location of the surface center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-08-12 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 119.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 119.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-12 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:34:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 14:34:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-12 16:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 the center of Elida was located near 23.5, -118.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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