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Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-11 17:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 111545 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Correct seed to speed in motion paragraph ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN STARTING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 113.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 113.8 West. Elida is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight as Elida moves over colder water, and the cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-11 16:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 14:41:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 15:24:39 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-11 16:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 111439 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then, the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models, which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-11 16:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 111439 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-11 16:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 111439 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 9(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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