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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 19.6, -110.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 8
2020-08-10 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 102032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 110.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 110.9 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but steady weakening is forecast to begin late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-10 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 102032 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics). Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher. Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the intensity estimates. Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific, Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3 days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of Elida's recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches. The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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