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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 46
2017-09-10 16:48:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101448 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET * NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * FLORIDA KEYS * TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN PASS * FLORIDA KEYS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA BAY * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 82.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.2N 83.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 160SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.8N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 38.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-10 15:58:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 the center of Irma was located near 25.0, -81.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-10 15:00:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS IN THE EYE OF IRMA... As of 9:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 the center of Irma was located near 24.6, -81.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Update Statement
2017-09-10 15:00:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 101300 TCUAT1 Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...LOWER FLORIDA KEYS IN THE EYE OF IRMA... A National Ocean Service station in Key West just measured sustained winds of 71 mph (113 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h). The Key West Weather Service Forecast Office recently reported a gust to 91 mph (146 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 81.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES $$ Forecaster Landsea/Mello
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 45A
2017-09-10 13:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101153 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 45A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...CENTER OF IRMA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 81.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves through the Florida Keys and near the west coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A wind gust to 89 mph (143 km/h) was recently measured at the Key West National Weather Service Forecast Office. Sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at Tamiami Airport in West Kendall, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.43 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The southern Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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