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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-10 17:17:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 15:17:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 15:23:36 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-10 16:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 14:59:41 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 46
2017-09-10 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101450 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 Latest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt. Thus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity is retained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensity until the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin to weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the Florida peninsula. Increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricane during the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma moves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and the cyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner. The official intensity forecast is close to the simple and corrected consensus models. The center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours and the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt. Irma is embedded within a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone is expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This will take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. The track guidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a little to the left and slower than the other models. The official track forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF solution. This is just slightly east of the previous official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. Preparations in central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion. 2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United States. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour, will lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 81.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.6N 82.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 29.2N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 33.8N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 14/1200Z 38.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2017-09-10 16:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 101449 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 13(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ATLANTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) KINGS BAY GA 34 6 42(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 38(43) 18(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 8 46(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 8 51(59) 6(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 24 69(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 53(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 48 34(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) DAYTONA BEACH 50 3 10(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 68 30(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) THE VILLAGES 50 5 72(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) THE VILLAGES 64 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ORLANDO FL 34 80 14(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ORLANDO FL 50 8 50(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ORLANDO FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) COCOA BEACH FL 50 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 78 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) PATRICK AFB 50 6 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 84 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) FT PIERCE FL 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT LAUDERDALE 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MIAMI FL 50 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) MIAMI FL 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 64 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 92 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) VENICE FL 64 55 24(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) TAMPA FL 34 91 8(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 35 60(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TAMPA FL 64 4 74(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CEDAR KEY FL 34 43 53(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CEDAR KEY FL 50 4 72(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 49(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 41(46) 25(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X 7( 7) 26(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 6 51(57) 16(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ST MARKS FL 50 X 12(12) 26(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ST MARKS FL 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 6 35(41) 6(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) APALACHICOLA 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 35(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 20(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 9( 9) 29(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 32 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANDROS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 46
2017-09-10 16:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017 ...IRMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST... ...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 81.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet * North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Matanzas and La Habana A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bimini and Grand Bahama A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.5 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h, and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move over the Lower Florida Keys shortly, and then move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula later today through tonight. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While weakening is forecast, Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane while it moves near or along the west coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). A 120 mph (193 km/h) gust was recently reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 94 mph (151 km/h) was reported at the Federal Aviation Administration station at Miami International Airport. A pressure of 940 mb (27.75 inches) was measured in the calm of the eye on Upper Sugarloaf Key. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 3 to 5 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...2 to 4 ft North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels along the north coast of Cuba will gradually subside today. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through this morning. Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Northwestern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Cuba...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. The Florida Keys...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Eastern Alabama and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southern, central, and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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