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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 43

2017-09-09 23:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092151 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 43...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 Corrected day of week to Sunday in first Key Message Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate that the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction with Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given the excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just reported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will move over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After 48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening. Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is high. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in southwest Florida should be completed within the next few hours, as tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight. 2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila/Brennan

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Hurricane Irma Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-09-09 23:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 21:38:11 GMT

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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 43

2017-09-09 23:22:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092121 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 43...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 Corrected to remove mention of Hurricane Watch along the Florida panhandle ...EYE OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA... ...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT DAYBREAK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the South Santee River. The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River. The government of Cuba has discontinued the watches and warnings for Holguin and Las Tunas provinces. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the Suwanee River * Florida Keys * Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana * Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 4 to 6 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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