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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-09-06 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 060235 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 KTS...185 MPH...295 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 24(39) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 26(52) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 25(64) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20(35) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 23(66) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 21(40) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 26(69) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 28(64) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 22(38) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 32(57) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 32(51) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 17(45) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 30(54) 7(61) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 5(29) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 35(75) 4(79) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 5(47) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 5(30) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 65(68) 10(78) 1(79) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 11(47) 1(48) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 9(29) 1(30) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 52(57) 5(62) 1(63) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) 1(24) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 46(92) X(92) X(92) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 56(67) X(67) X(67) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) X(44) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 18(18) 76(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 68(69) 14(83) X(83) X(83) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 46(46) 17(63) X(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 19(46) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 11(25) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 12(57) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 8(27) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 26(70) 3(73) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 25(41) 1(42) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 4(54) 1(55) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 48(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 13(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 2 66(68) 7(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) PONCE PR 50 X 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PONCE PR 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 65(67) 19(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 12(12) 25(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JUAN PR 34 3 92(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 61(61) 6(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAN JUAN PR 64 X 31(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) VIEQUES PR 34 11 86(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VIEQUES PR 50 1 60(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) VIEQUES PR 64 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT THOMAS 34 56 44(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT THOMAS 50 2 89(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 72(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT CROIX 34 43 51(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SAINT CROIX 50 2 35(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 64 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT MAARTEN 64 93 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 50 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ANTIGUA 64 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUADELOUPE 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) AVES 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 28
2017-09-06 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 61.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-09-06 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060234 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * GUADELOUPE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL AS CUBA... THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 61.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 240SE 240SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 61.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Irma Update Statement
2017-09-06 02:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 815 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 060039 CCA TCUAT1 Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 815 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 Corrected for time in summary information ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE... The government of France has changed the Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF 815 PM AST...0015 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 60.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-06 02:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE... As of 8:15 PM AST Tue Sep 5 the center of Irma was located near 17.2, -60.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
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