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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 29
2017-09-06 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060852 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * GUADELOUPE * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...AS WELL AS CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 110SE 90SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 210SE 90SW 380NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 62.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.6W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.3W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-06 07:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 05:48:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 03:25:53 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 28A
2017-09-06 07:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060545 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 200 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSING OVER BARBUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BARBUDA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Guadeloupe A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 61.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A National Ocean Service automated station on Barbuda recently reported sustained winds of 119 mph (191 km/h) and a wind gust of 155 mph (250 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches). The automated station on Barbuda recently reported a pressure of 927.9 mb (27.40 in). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm conditions occurring at this time. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and St. Croix...2 to 4 inches Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations Wednesday through Saturday: Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-06 04:44:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 02:44:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2017 02:44:54 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-06 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060236 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017 The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current intensity remains at 160 kt. The Meteo-France radar imagery suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening. The official intensity forecast is near or above the model consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next few days. Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through Friday. 3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.4N 61.1W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.1W 155 KT 180 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.0N 71.2W 140 KT 160 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 22.0N 76.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.2N 79.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.0N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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