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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 31
2017-09-06 22:55:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 062055 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 65.4W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. The government of France has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the southern border with Haiti * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuba provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as well as Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 65.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will pass just north of Puerto Rico tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) has been recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft Water levels in the Leeward Islands will gradually subside tonight. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft Northern coast of Puerto Rico...4 to 6 ft Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical Storm and Hurricane conditions are occurring over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and will spread westward over portions of Puerto Rico tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Thursday with tropical storm conditions by late tonight. These conditions will spread into the Central Bahamas by Thursday night. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the central Bahamas and Cuba by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area in Cuba Thursday night. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Northern Leeward Islands...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Storm total 8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southwest Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Southern Leeward Islands, and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches. Southeast Bahamas, Central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Eastern and Central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and portions of the southeast coast of the United States during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 31
2017-09-06 22:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 062054 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG ISLAND... RUM CAY... AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI * HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE * CUBA PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL AS CUBA... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.4W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 120SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 90SE 60SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 65.4W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.6W MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.7N 70.4W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N 73.1W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 80.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Many Florida schools cancel classes in anticipation of Hurricane Irma
2017-09-06 21:11:20| American School & University
School sessions for hundreds of thousands of students have been canceled for Thursday and Friday
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-06 20:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...300 PM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...CORE OF IRMA BATTERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 3:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6 the center of Irma was located near 18.6, -64.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 920 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 185 mph.
Hurricane Irma Update Statement
2017-09-06 20:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 061851 TCUAT1 Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 300 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...300 PM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...CORE OF IRMA BATTERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... An unofficial observing site on Culebra recently reported sustained winds of 73 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 96 mph (154 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 64.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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